A compass, not the map.
BTB doesn't sell picks. It gives you direction: who plays and for how long, who picks up the minutes when someone sits, and how close our numbers have come. You make the call, faster and with the reasons in front of you.
BTB scores: context, 0 to 100
BTB scores run 0 to 100 and 50 is the middle of each pool. They describe; they are not chances, they do not move the projections, and they are not graded on the record, which grades only the projections.
BTB Defense
Tonight's players' lineup defense, weighted by the minutes each is expected to play, against every team's latest board. Higher is better defense. The game page also shows the score with everyone on the injury report back, so you can see what tonight's absences cost a defense.
BTB Defender
His own lineup defense (RAPM: opponent points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, teammates separated out, and pulled toward average until his sample is large), against every active player with 5,000 defensive possessions of lineup sample.
Lineup defense was tried as an input to the engine. It did not make the points projections more accurate, so the engine does not use it. The score ships because it describes something the box score does not.
Matchup
How easy tonight looks for his scoring, from three things: the defenders likely on him (weighted by their expected minutes and position, with the opponent's best defender leaning toward the top scorer, each rated by BTB Defender), the game's pace against his own team's, and the opponent's defenders who are out or limited on tonight's report. Who guards whom is inferred, not tracked. It is placed against every player-game of 2024-25, so 50 is a typical draw. Higher is an easier draw.
Role
His usage over his last ten games played: the share of his team's plays he finishes with a shot, free throws or a turnover while he is on the floor, against the league. Higher is a bigger share of the offense.
Form
His last five games this season against his own rate before them: points, rebounds and assists per minute, weighed with his shooting, his shot attempts per minute and his minutes. A run built on hot shooting counts for less, because shooting runs fade; one built on more shots counts for more. It is ranked against the league, so 50 is the league's middle run, not 'no change': the line under the score gives his own change in points, rebounds and assists per minute. It starts once he has five games this season. Short runs are still mostly noise: this describes the run, it is not a forecast.
The record: why you can check us
Every projection is logged before tip and settled against the box score after, in public, including the nights we missed. Each market is measured against one plain baseline: each player's own average over his last ten games played, taken when our number was logged.
A market's grade is computed from the ledger, never written by hand.
- Proven: At least 30 settled nights and 3000 graded player-games, and our average miss is smaller than the baseline's with a 95% interval (over nights) that stays below zero.
- Void: A player who did not play is void, never zero. Only players who played are graded.
Proven means our misses are smaller than that baseline's. The record shows every market and every night, and Methods shows how the numbers are built.
Who uses it
- Analysts: projected minutes with their range, the stat line built on them, and a pre-tip record you can audit.
- Fantasy players: who plays tonight and for how long, and who picks up the minutes when a starter sits.
- Writers and researchers: the official injury report turned into minutes, team defense by position, and methods in plain English.
- Fans: player pages with season stats, splits and game logs, and every night's board.
Member pages are for BTB Pro members, with a few free pages a week on a free account. See pricing.